Tennis · M25 Vale do Lobo · 13/11, 11:00
Prediction: Rafael Izquierdo Luque vs Pavel Lagutin
Team pages: Rafael Izquierdo Luque · Pavel Lagutin
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Izquierdo Luque
Pavel Lagutin
Estimated games
20.4
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Izquierdo Luque
3-7 (W-L)
Pavel Lagutin
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Rafael Izquierdo Luque
1–1
Pavel Lagutin
(2 last)
- 13 Aug0-2 3-9L
- 16 Apr2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Izquierdo Luque 1453 · Pavel Lagutin 1534
| Rafael Izquierdo Luque | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Lagutin (rating 1453 vs 1534).
- Pavel Lagutin is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rafael Izquierdo Luque | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.7 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.3-11.6 | 10.9-9.4 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 60.9% | 61.7% |
| Break % | 44.8% | 43.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
H2H · Rafael Izquierdo Luque 1 – 1 Pavel Lagutin (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rafael Izquierdo Luque 1–1 Pavel Lagutin
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/26 M25 Idanha-A-Nova | 0-2 | 3-9 | L |
| 16/04/26 M15 Ceuta | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Izquierdo Luque
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Pedro Rodenas M25 Vale do Lobo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 01/11 | Ziga Sesko Challenger Taranto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/10 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Fausto Tabacco Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Joao Domingues M25 Setubal |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 30/08 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Matias Reyniak M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Pavel Lagutin M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 3-9 | L |
| 12/08 | Matias Reyniak M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/08 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Pavel Lagutin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Salvador Monteiro M25 Vale do Lobo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/10 | Yanaki Milev Challenger Florence · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/10 | Massimo Giunta Challenger Catania · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/10 | Michael Geerts Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/10 | Oleksandr Ovcharenko Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 11/10 | Ignacio Parisca Romera Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/09 | Iliyan Radulov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 20/09 | Rares Teodor Pieleanu Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Izquierdo Luque vs Pavel Lagutin?
Our model gives 69% to Pavel Lagutin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.