Tennis · W15 Lincoln · 12/11, 20:30
Prediction: Ana Grubor vs Ava Esposito Cogan
Team pages: Ana Grubor · Ava Esposito Cogan
Prediction summary
Winner
Ana Grubor
Ava Esposito Cogan
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Ana Grubor
2-8 (W-L)
Ava Esposito Cogan
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ana Grubor 1442 · Ava Esposito Cogan 1608
| Ana Grubor | Ava Esposito Cogan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 72% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ava Esposito Cogan (rating 1442 vs 1608).
- Ava Esposito Cogan dominates on serve: 8.3 aces and 53.2% break avg.
- Ava Esposito Cogan is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Ana Grubor makes many double faults (7.5/match).
- Note: Ava Esposito Cogan makes many double faults (9.3/match).
Statistics
| Ana Grubor | Ava Esposito Cogan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.5 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.9-11.1 | 13.2-9.2 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 8.3 |
| Double faults | 7.5 | 9.3 |
| 1st serve % | 54.6% | 73.5% |
| Break % | 53.9% | 53.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ana Grubor
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Virginia Crocker W15 Lincoln |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/10 | Selena Janicijevic WTA Queretaro · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Carolina Kuhl W75 Saguenay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 13/10 | Hina Inoue W50 Quebec City |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Janae Preston W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Mayu Crossley W100 Templeton |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Karolina Mrazikova W15 Pecs |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Anna Mihalka W15 Pecs |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Ayline Esina Samardzic W15 Pecs |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Julia Stusek W35 Verbier |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Ava Esposito Cogan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Julie Adele Bedard W15 Lincoln |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/10 | Rinon Okuwaki UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/10 | Joanna Kennedy UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/10 | Lisa Kamigata UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/10 | Gabia Paskauskas UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/10 | Alyson Shannon UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 15/08 | Kaya Moe UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Lexie Weir UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Allison Isaacs UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 12/08 | Mariana Manyoma UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ana Grubor vs Ava Esposito Cogan?
Our model gives 69% to Ava Esposito Cogan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.