Tennis · M25 Montreal · 12/11, 16:00
Prediction: Thomas Gerbaud vs Mikael Arseneault
Team pages: Thomas Gerbaud · Mikael Arseneault
Prediction summary
Winner
Thomas Gerbaud
Mikael Arseneault
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Thomas Gerbaud
6-4 (W-L)
Mikael Arseneault
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thomas Gerbaud 1501 · Mikael Arseneault 1524
| Thomas Gerbaud | Mikael Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Thomas Gerbaud dominates on serve: 8 aces and 42.8% break avg.
- Note: Thomas Gerbaud makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Thomas Gerbaud | Mikael Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-10.7 | 12.4-10.3 |
| Aces | 8 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 5.7 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.1% | 69% |
| Break % | 42.8% | 47.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thomas Gerbaud
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Jaden Weekes M25 Montreal |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 10/11 | Daniel Kliebhan M25 Montreal |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/11 | Anirudh Rao M25 Montreal |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/10 | Antoine Walch M25 Sarreguemines |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Amaury Raynel M25 Sarreguemines |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/10 | Jelle Sels M15 Rodez |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/10 | Sean Hodkin M15 Rodez |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/10 | Victor Bonnet Eymard M15 Rodez |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Frederic Schlossmann M25 Meerbusch |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Damien Salvestre M15 Cap d'Agde |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Mikael Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Volodymyr Gurenko M25 Montreal |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/11 | Nikola Slavic M15 Trois-Rivieres |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 06/11 | Oskar Brostrom Poulsen M15 Trois-Rivieres |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/11 | Eliot Nobel M15 Trois-Rivieres |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/11 | Marko Mesarovic M15 Trois-Rivieres |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/10 | Rodrigo Fernandes M15 Ithaca |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 20/10 | Matt Kuhar M15 Ithaca |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/10 | William Jansen M15 Lexington |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Matisse Farzam M15 Champaign |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 28/07 | James Trotter Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thomas Gerbaud vs Mikael Arseneault?
Our model gives 67% to Mikael Arseneault, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.