Tennis · ATP Stockholm · 12/11, 18:30
Prediction: Taylor Fritz vs Holger Rune
Team pages: Taylor Fritz · Holger Rune
Prediction summary
Winner
Taylor Fritz
Holger Rune
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Taylor Fritz
6-4 (W-L)
Holger Rune
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Taylor Fritz
2–1
Holger Rune
(3 last)
- 09 Oct2-0 12-3W
- 14 Mar1-2 15-15L
- 28 Mar2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Taylor Fritz 1574 · Holger Rune 1512
| Taylor Fritz | Holger Rune | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Taylor Fritz (rating 1574 vs 1512).
- Head-to-head: Taylor Fritz 2–1 Holger Rune (3).
Statistics
| Taylor Fritz | Holger Rune | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-11.5 | 13-12.5 |
| Aces | 14.7 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 79.4% | 73.3% |
| Break % | 36.4% | 37.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1
Over 22.5: 57% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 43% · 1.90
H2H · Taylor Fritz 2 – 1 Holger Rune (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Taylor Fritz 2–1 Holger Rune
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/24 ATP Shanghai | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/03/24 ATP Indian Wells | 1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 28/03/23 ATP Miami | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Taylor Fritz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Cameron Norrie ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/11 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Paris · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 05/11 | Arthur Fils ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/11 | Alex Molcan ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 03/11 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 31/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Basel · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/10 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/10 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/10 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Holger Rune
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 10/11 | Zizou Bergs ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/11 | Tommy Paul ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 28/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 26/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 07/10 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 01/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Grigor Dimitrov Davis Cup |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 18/09 | Iliyan Radulov Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Taylor Fritz vs Holger Rune?
Our model gives 64% to Taylor Fritz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.