Tennis · Challenger Orleans · 12/11, 15:30
Prediction: Pedro Martinez vs Matteo Martineau
Team pages: Pedro Martinez · Matteo Martineau
Prediction summary
Winner
Pedro Martinez
Matteo Martineau
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Pedro Martinez
4-6 (W-L)
Matteo Martineau
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Pedro Martinez
1–0
Matteo Martineau
(1 last)
- 09 Jan2-0 13-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pedro Martinez 1536 · Matteo Martineau 1593
| Pedro Martinez | Matteo Martineau | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matteo Martineau (rating 1536 vs 1593).
- Matteo Martineau dominates on serve: 8 aces and 55.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Pedro Martinez 1–0 Matteo Martineau (1).
Statistics
| Pedro Martinez | Matteo Martineau | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (4) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-11 | 13.7-11.4 |
| Aces | 1 | 8 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.9% | 75.2% |
| Break % | 48.6% | 55.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Pedro Martinez 1 – 0 Matteo Martineau (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pedro Martinez 1–0 Matteo Martineau
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/26 Challenger Bengaluru | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pedro Martinez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Orleans · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 14/10 | Matej Dodig Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Laslo Djere Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 16-17 | W |
| 22/09 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/09 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/09 | Laslo Djere Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 11/09 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/09 | Maximo Zeitune Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Matteo Martineau
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Orleans · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 08/11 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/11 | Felix Gill Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/11 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 05/11 | Adrian Andreev Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 03/11 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/10 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Brest · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/10 | Thijs Boogaard M25 Sarreguemines |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 18/10 | Mika Brunold Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/10 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pedro Martinez vs Matteo Martineau?
Our model gives 56% to Matteo Martineau, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.