Tennis · W50 Yokohama · 12/11, 03:30
Prediction: Heather Watson vs Hanna Chang
Team pages: Heather Watson · Hanna Chang
Prediction summary
Winner
Heather Watson
Hanna Chang
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Heather Watson
3-7 (W-L)
Hanna Chang
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Heather Watson 1459 · Hanna Chang 1581
| Heather Watson | Hanna Chang | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hanna Chang (rating 1459 vs 1581).
- Hanna Chang is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Heather Watson makes many double faults (6.4/match).
- Note: Hanna Chang makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Heather Watson | Hanna Chang | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 86% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-12.9 | 10.6-8.4 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 6.4 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 65.9% | 63.9% |
| Break % | 37.8% | 59.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Heather Watson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Yuno Kitahara W50 Yokohama |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/10 | Emerson Jones WTA Hong Kong · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/10 | Alycia Parks WTA Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-17 | W |
| 17/10 | Emerson Jones WTA Osaka · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Harriet Dart US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Angela Fita Boluda US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 24/08 | Claire Liu US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 01/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Julieta Pareja WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Hanna Chang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Mutsumi Uemura W50 Yokohama |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 03/11 | Xinxin Yao W100 Incheon |
1-2 | 6-15 | L |
| 25/10 | Jenna Defalco W35 Bakersfield · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/10 | Connie Ma W35 Bakersfield · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/10 | Jo Yee Chan W35 Bakersfield · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 23/10 | Salma Drugdova W35 Bakersfield · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/10 | Nika Hurkacz W35 Bakersfield · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/10 | Madison Brengle W100 Edmond |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Janae Preston W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Amelie Justine Hejtmanek W35 Las Vegas · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Heather Watson vs Hanna Chang?
Our model gives 51% to Hanna Chang, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.