Tennis · WTA Finals WD · 12/11, 23:00
Prediction: Siniakova/Townsend vs Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
Team pages: Siniakova/Townsend · Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
Prediction summary
Winner
Siniakova/Townsend
Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Siniakova/Townsend
9-1 (W-L)
Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Siniakova/Townsend
1–1
Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
(2 last)
- 08 Sept2-0 12-6W
- 15 May0-2 8-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Siniakova/Townsend 1587 · Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez 1526
| Siniakova/Townsend | Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Siniakova/Townsend (rating 1587 vs 1526).
Statistics
| Siniakova/Townsend | Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.6-10.9 | 15.1-13.2 |
| Aces | 2 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 66.2% |
| Break % | 51.1% | 58.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +4.8
Over 19.5: 80% · 2.10
Under 19.5: 20% · 1.66
H2H · Siniakova/Townsend 1 – 1 Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Siniakova/Townsend 1–1 Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/26 US Open WD | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/05/26 WTA Rome WD | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Siniakova/Townsend
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Perez/Schuurs WTA Finals WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/11 | Errani/Paolini WTA Finals WD · Hard |
1-2 | 15-20 | L |
| 11/09 | Krueger/Montgomery US Open WD · Hard |
2-1 | 17-9 | W |
| 09/09 | Mertens/Shnaider US Open WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez US Open WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/09 | Hunter/Krawczyk US Open WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/09 | Wang/Xu US Open WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Brantmeier/Broadus US Open WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/08 | Jovic/McNally WTA Cincinnati WD · Hard |
1-2 | 19-21 | L |
| 17/08 | Jurak Schreiber/Wu WTA Cincinnati WD · Hard |
2-1 | 20-15 | W |
Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Errani/Paolini WTA Finals WD · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 09/11 | Perez/Schuurs WTA Finals WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/10 | Krawczyk/Stollar WTA Ningbo WD · Hard |
1-2 | 19-22 | L |
| 21/10 | Errani/Paolini WTA Ningbo WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/10 | Dabrowski/Stefani WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/10 | Tang/Xu WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 14/10 | Jiang/Wang WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/10 | Perez/Schuurs WTA Beijing WD · Hard |
1-2 | 20-18 | L |
| 05/10 | Alexandrova/Stollar WTA Beijing WD · Hard |
2-1 | 23-22 | W |
| 19/09 | Kobori/Plipuech WTA Guadalajara WD · Hard |
2-1 | 21-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Siniakova/Townsend vs Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez?
Our model gives 69% to Siniakova/Townsend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.