Tennis · Challenger Knoxville · 12/11, 17:00
Prediction: Stefan Kozlov vs Braden Shick
Team pages: Stefan Kozlov · Braden Shick
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefan Kozlov
Braden Shick
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Stefan Kozlov
7-3 (W-L)
Braden Shick
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefan Kozlov
1–0
Braden Shick
(1 last)
- 06 Nov2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefan Kozlov 1580 · Braden Shick 1483
| Stefan Kozlov | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefan Kozlov (rating 1580 vs 1483).
- Stefan Kozlov is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Stefan Kozlov 1–0 Braden Shick (1).
Statistics
| Stefan Kozlov | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-9.6 | 10.1-12.5 |
| Aces | 2 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.4% | 67% |
| Break % | 56.1% | 36% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Stefan Kozlov 1 – 0 Braden Shick (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefan Kozlov 1–0 Braden Shick
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/26 Challenger Charlottesville | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefan Kozlov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/11 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
2-1 | 16-17 | W |
| 07/11 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 06/11 | Braden Shick Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/11 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/11 | Andres Martin Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/10 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Columbus · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 29/09 | James Trotter Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Colton Smith Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Braden Shick
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Knoxville · Hard |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 06/11 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/11 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 27/10 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Gabriel Debru Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 30/09 | Mees Rottgering Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Ozan Baris Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 21/09 | Patrick Maloney Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 15/09 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefan Kozlov vs Braden Shick?
Our model gives 63% to Stefan Kozlov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.