Tennis · Challenger Knoxville · 11/11, 21:30
Prediction: Liam Draxl vs Petr Nesterov
Team pages: Liam Draxl · Petr Nesterov
Prediction summary
Winner
Liam Draxl
Petr Nesterov
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Liam Draxl
7-3 (W-L)
Petr Nesterov
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Draxl 1560 · Petr Nesterov 1534
| Liam Draxl | Petr Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Liam Draxl | Petr Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-11.9 | 12.5-11.7 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.4% | 68.7% |
| Break % | 57.4% | 36.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Draxl
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Duncan Chan Challenger Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/11 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/11 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 31/10 | Sebastian Dominko Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 31/10 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 27/10 | Tomasz Berkieta Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 17/10 | Martin Landaluce Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/10 | Tomas Machac Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 15/10 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 12-14 | W |
| 14/10 | James Duckworth Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Petr Nesterov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Timo Legout Challenger Knoxville · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 03/11 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/10 | Christian Langmo Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Carles Hernandez Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/10 | Hynek Barton Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 04/10 | Charles Chen Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 29/09 | Goncalo Marques Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 28/09 | Marko Topo Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/09 | Giorgio Tabacco Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Draxl vs Petr Nesterov?
Our model gives 63% to Liam Draxl, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.