Tennis · Challenger Orleans · 12/11, 11:00
Prediction: Sebastian Baez vs Calvin Hemery
Team pages: Sebastian Baez · Calvin Hemery
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Baez
Calvin Hemery
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Baez
1-9 (W-L)
Calvin Hemery
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Baez 1446 · Calvin Hemery 1542
| Sebastian Baez | Calvin Hemery | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Calvin Hemery (rating 1446 vs 1542).
- Calvin Hemery is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Calvin Hemery makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Sebastian Baez | Calvin Hemery | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.7 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-13 | 12-12.3 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 65.9% | 71.2% |
| Break % | 25.9% | 26% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Baez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Orleans · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 02/11 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/11 | Tomas Machac ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/10 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Paris · Hard |
1-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 24/10 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 20/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Marcos Giron ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 01/10 | Juncheng Shang ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 23/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
Calvin Hemery
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Orleans · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 09/11 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Orleans · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 08/11 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Orleans · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/11 | Philip Henning Challenger Taranto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 26/10 | Robin Catry Challenger Brest · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 25/10 | Adrien Gobat Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Max Houkes M25 Kigali |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 09/10 | Marlon Vankan M25 Kigali |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/10 | Benjamin Lock M25 Kigali |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Baez vs Calvin Hemery?
Our model gives 56% to Sebastian Baez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.