Tennis · Challenger Lima · 12/11, 01:00
Prediction: Lautaro Midon vs Miguel Tobon
Team pages: Lautaro Midon · Miguel Tobon
Prediction summary
Winner
Lautaro Midon
Miguel Tobon
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Lautaro Midon
7-3 (W-L)
Miguel Tobon
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lautaro Midon 1560 · Miguel Tobon 1516
| Lautaro Midon | Miguel Tobon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lautaro Midon (rating 1560 vs 1516).
Statistics
| Lautaro Midon | Miguel Tobon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-10.9 | 11-9.3 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 67.8% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 35.2% | 48.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lautaro Midon
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Arklon Huertas del Pino Cordova Challenger Lima · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 06/11 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/11 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 03/11 | Lucas Andrade da Silva Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/10 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 29/10 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/10 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/10 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/10 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
Miguel Tobon
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Lima · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/11 | Leonardo Storck Franca Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/11 | Enrique Bogo Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 28/10 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/10 | Daniel Salazar Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/10 | Federico Zeballos Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/10 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Cali · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 23/10 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 21/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 09/10 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lautaro Midon vs Miguel Tobon?
Our model gives 61% to Lautaro Midon, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.