Tennis · Challenger Brisbane · 11/11, 05:30
Prediction: August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell
Team pages: August Holmgren · Christopher O'Connell
Prediction summary
Winner
August Holmgren
Christopher O'Connell
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
August Holmgren
6-4 (W-L)
Christopher O'Connell
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · August Holmgren 1476 · Christopher O'Connell 1564
| August Holmgren | Christopher O'Connell | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Christopher O'Connell (rating 1476 vs 1564).
- Christopher O'Connell is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| August Holmgren | Christopher O'Connell | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-11.8 | 12.1-10.2 |
| Aces | 8.6 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 74.2% | 75.2% |
| Break % | 35.8% | 42.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
August Holmgren
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 04/11 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/11 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Luca Nardi Challenger Olbia · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 02/10 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/09 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Vadym Ursu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Christopher O'Connell
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Moerani Bouzige Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/08 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/08 | Dane Sweeny ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 03/08 | James Duckworth ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell?
Our model gives 62% to Christopher O'Connell, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.