Tennis · Challenger Brisbane · 11/11, 07:00
Prediction: Alafia Ayeni vs Alex Bolt
Team pages: Alafia Ayeni · Alex Bolt
Prediction summary
Winner
Alafia Ayeni
Alex Bolt
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Alafia Ayeni
4-6 (W-L)
Alex Bolt
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alafia Ayeni
0–1
Alex Bolt
(1 last)
- 26 Sept0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alafia Ayeni 1471 · Alex Bolt 1547
| Alafia Ayeni | Alex Bolt | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Bolt (rating 1471 vs 1547).
- Head-to-head: Alafia Ayeni 0–1 Alex Bolt (1).
- Note: Alafia Ayeni makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Alafia Ayeni | Alex Bolt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-11.9 | 11.2-10.1 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 8.6 |
| Double faults | 6.3 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.4% | 72.2% |
| Break % | 35.3% | 34.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Alafia Ayeni 0 – 1 Alex Bolt (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alafia Ayeni 0–1 Alex Bolt
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/21 ATP San Diego | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alafia Ayeni
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Edward Winter Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 25/10 | Uisung Park Challenger Seoul · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 28/09 | Kaylan Bigun Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Michael Bassem Sobhy Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/09 | Evan Zhu Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Li Tu Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/09 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/09 | Carl Emil Overbeck Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/09 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Tiago Cacao Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Alex Bolt
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Lloyd Harris ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/10 | Evan Zhu Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 29/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Akira Santillan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/09 | Omar Jasika ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alafia Ayeni vs Alex Bolt?
Our model gives 71% to Alex Bolt, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.