Tennis · Challenger Brisbane · 11/11, 01:00
Prediction: Matthew Dellavedova vs Sebastian Gorzny
Team pages: Matthew Dellavedova · Sebastian Gorzny
Prediction summary
Winner
Matthew Dellavedova
Sebastian Gorzny
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Matthew Dellavedova
8-2 (W-L)
Sebastian Gorzny
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matthew Dellavedova 1652 · Sebastian Gorzny 1509
| Matthew Dellavedova | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matthew Dellavedova (rating 1652 vs 1509).
- Sebastian Gorzny dominates on serve: 8.5 aces and 45% break avg.
- Matthew Dellavedova is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Matthew Dellavedova | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (1) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-7 | 13.1-11.6 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 8.5 |
| Double faults | 0.7 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 74.8% | 72.6% |
| Break % | 52.5% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matthew Dellavedova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 01/11 | Philip Sekulic M25 Tamworth |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 31/10 | Jeremy Beale M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 8-1 | W |
| 30/10 | Isaac Becroft M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/10 | Lachlan Vickery M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 28/10 | Darcy Nicholls M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/10 | Stefan Vujic M25 Tamworth |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/10 | Naoki Nakagawa M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/10 | Martin Borisiouk M25 Qian Daohu |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/10 | Egor Pleshivtsev M25 Qian Daohu |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Isaac Becroft Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 28/10 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Igor Marcondes Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 17/10 | Alastair Gray M25 Austin |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 15/10 | Quinn Vandecasteele M25 Austin |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/10 | Edward Winter M25 Austin |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Tristan Boyer Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 21/09 | Aidan Mayo Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/09 | Andrew Johnson Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matthew Dellavedova vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 56% to Matthew Dellavedova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.