Tennis · Challenger Matsuyama · 11/11, 03:00
Prediction: Jay Friend vs Naoya Honda
Team pages: Jay Friend · Naoya Honda
Prediction summary
Winner
Jay Friend
Naoya Honda
Estimated games
23.4
Recent form · 10 last
Jay Friend
5-5 (W-L)
Naoya Honda
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jay Friend 1521 · Naoya Honda 1510
| Jay Friend | Naoya Honda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Jay Friend | Naoya Honda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-12.3 | 12.1-12.4 |
| Aces | 7.2 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 76.8% |
| Break % | 37.9% | 37.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Yusuke Kusuhara Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 29/10 | Sho Shimabukuro Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/10 | Coleman Wong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/10 | James McCabe Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 20/10 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 15/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 10/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Naoya Honda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/10 | Liam Broady Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 27/10 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 26/10 | Khumoyun Sultanov Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 25/10 | Ryuki Matsuda Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/10 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/10 | Kristjan Tamm Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/09 | Petr Bar Biryukov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/09 | Jesse Flores Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jay Friend vs Naoya Honda?
Our model gives 66% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.