Tennis · Challenger Matsuyama · 12/11, 03:00
Prediction: Rio Noguchi vs Yi Zhou
Team pages: Rio Noguchi · Yi Zhou
Prediction summary
Winner
Rio Noguchi
Yi Zhou
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Rio Noguchi
4-6 (W-L)
Yi Zhou
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Rio Noguchi
1–1
Yi Zhou
(2 last)
- 06 Jun0-2 7-13L
- 28 May2-0 12-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rio Noguchi 1470 · Yi Zhou 1552
| Rio Noguchi | Yi Zhou | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yi Zhou (rating 1470 vs 1552).
- Yi Zhou is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rio Noguchi | Yi Zhou | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-11 | 13-11.2 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 82.3% |
| Break % | 37.4% | 30.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Rio Noguchi 1 – 1 Yi Zhou (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rio Noguchi 1–1 Yi Zhou
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/25 Challenger Tyler | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/05/25 Challenger Little Rock | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rio Noguchi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 05/10 | Alexandre Muller ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 23/09 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Masamichi Imamura ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/09 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Yi Zhou
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 29/10 | Jake Delaney Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 27/10 | Elias Ymer Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 24/10 | Coleman Wong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/10 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/10 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 09/10 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 07/10 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rio Noguchi vs Yi Zhou?
Our model gives 68% to Yi Zhou, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.