Tennis · Challenger Matsuyama · 11/11, 04:30
Prediction: Joel Schwaerzler vs Kaichi Uchida
Team pages: Joel Schwaerzler · Kaichi Uchida
Prediction summary
Winner
Joel Schwaerzler
Kaichi Uchida
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Joel Schwaerzler
4-6 (W-L)
Kaichi Uchida
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joel Schwaerzler 1485 · Kaichi Uchida 1466
| Joel Schwaerzler | Kaichi Uchida | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Joel Schwaerzler | Kaichi Uchida | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 0.9-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10.9 | 10.7-11.5 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 74.5% | 73.6% |
| Break % | 39.1% | 27.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joel Schwaerzler
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/11 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Taipei · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 24/10 | Titouan Droguet ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 17/10 | Federico Cina ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 03/10 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/10 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Alberto Barroso Campos Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Kaichi Uchida
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/11 | Chun-Chien Hou Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/10 | Harold Mayot Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/10 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 20/10 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/10 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Jesse Delaney Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 06/10 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joel Schwaerzler vs Kaichi Uchida?
Our model gives 67% to Joel Schwaerzler, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.