Tennis · Challenger Matsuyama · 12/11, 03:00
Prediction: Rei Sakamoto vs Kasidit Samrej
Team pages: Rei Sakamoto · Kasidit Samrej
Prediction summary
Winner
Rei Sakamoto
Kasidit Samrej
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Rei Sakamoto
7-3 (W-L)
Kasidit Samrej
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Rei Sakamoto
2–0
Kasidit Samrej
(2 last)
- 26 Oct2-0 12-7W
- 18 Nov2-0 13-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rei Sakamoto 1605 · Kasidit Samrej 1512
| Rei Sakamoto | Kasidit Samrej | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rei Sakamoto (rating 1605 vs 1512).
- Rei Sakamoto is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Rei Sakamoto 2–0 Kasidit Samrej (2).
Statistics
| Rei Sakamoto | Kasidit Samrej | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-9 | 11.3-11.8 |
| Aces | 8.6 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 77.6% | 69.5% |
| Break % | 32.8% | 28.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
H2H · Rei Sakamoto 2 – 0 Kasidit Samrej (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rei Sakamoto 2–0 Kasidit Samrej
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/26 Challenger Seoul | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/11/25 Challenger Yokohama | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rei Sakamoto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Renta Tokuda Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/10 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/10 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Almaty · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 17/10 | Amir Omarkhanov ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/10 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
Kasidit Samrej
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 06/11 | Coleman Wong Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 05/11 | Carl Emil Overbeck Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/11 | James McCabe Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/11 | Omar Jasika Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 01/11 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/10 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Coleman Wong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/10 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 19/10 | Yaroslav Demin Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rei Sakamoto vs Kasidit Samrej?
Our model gives 75% to Rei Sakamoto, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.