Tennis · M15 Antalya · 11/11, 07:30
Prediction: Andrey Chepelev vs Andrea Paolini
Team pages: Andrey Chepelev · Andrea Paolini
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrey Chepelev
Andrea Paolini
Estimated games
20.4
Recent form · 10 last
Andrey Chepelev
7-3 (W-L)
Andrea Paolini
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrey Chepelev 1546 · Andrea Paolini 1496
| Andrey Chepelev | Andrea Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrey Chepelev (rating 1546 vs 1496).
Statistics
| Andrey Chepelev | Andrea Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-9.7 | 9.2-9.2 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 65% | 55.9% |
| Break % | 58.8% | 57.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrey Chepelev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Stefan Adrian Andreescu M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/11 | William Kjellberg M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/11 | Facundo Yunis M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/10 | Adrian Oetzbach M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 21/10 | Manuel Mazza M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/10 | Romeo Spinolo M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 14/10 | Lorenzo Berto M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-11 | L |
| 13/10 | Simone Massucco M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 10/10 | Alexander Weis M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 09/10 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Andrea Paolini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Amine Jamji M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/10 | Matthias Ujvary M15 Bol · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Goncalo Da Rosa Castro M15 Bol · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/10 | Matej Sabanov M15 Bol · ~Clay |
1-2 | 8-9 | L |
| 05/10 | Mattia Nannelli M15 Burgas |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 31/08 | David Ioan Morega M15 Buzau |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Ignacio Monzon M15 Pecs |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Mate Valkusz M15 Pecs |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Radovan Michalik M15 Pecs |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Filip Martinovic M15 Pecs |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrey Chepelev vs Andrea Paolini?
Our model gives 69% to Andrey Chepelev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.