Tennis · WTA Finals · 11/11, 21:00
Prediction: Elina Svitolina vs Karolina Muchova
Team pages: Elina Svitolina · Karolina Muchova
Prediction summary
Winner
Elina Svitolina
Karolina Muchova
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Elina Svitolina
5-5 (W-L)
Karolina Muchova
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elina Svitolina
3–1
Karolina Muchova
(4 last)
- 18 Apr1-2 14-14L
- 23 Mar2-1 15-10W
- 09 Jul2-0 13-9W
- 14 Feb2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elina Svitolina 1520 · Karolina Muchova 1520
| Elina Svitolina | Karolina Muchova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Elina Svitolina 3–1 Karolina Muchova (4).
Statistics
| Elina Svitolina | Karolina Muchova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-9.8 | 11.6-12 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 65.3% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 52.7% | 47.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
H2H · Elina Svitolina 3 – 1 Karolina Muchova (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elina Svitolina 3–1 Karolina Muchova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 WTA Stuttgart | 1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 23/03/25 WTA Miami | 2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 09/07/19 Wimbledon Women | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/02/19 WTA Doha | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elina Svitolina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Finals · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Sonay Kartal WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/10 | Hanyu Guo WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/10 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 09/10 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Ann Li WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Maria Sakkari WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/10 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 27/09 | Linda Noskova Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Jasmine Paolini Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Karolina Muchova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Finals · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/10 | Diana Shnaider WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Caty McNally WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 08/10 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Naomi Osaka WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 04/10 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/10 | Katie Boulter WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/09 | Anhelina Kalinina Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/09 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Emma Navarro US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elina Svitolina vs Karolina Muchova?
Our model gives 55% to Karolina Muchova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.