Tennis · WTA Finals · 11/11, 22:30
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Mirra Andreeva
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Mirra Andreeva
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
8-2 (W-L)
Mirra Andreeva
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aryna Sabalenka
5–2
Mirra Andreeva
(7 last)
- 16 Mar1-2 13-14L
- 19 Jan2-0 12-3W
- 04 Jan2-0 12-5W
- 05 Jun1-2 15-18L
- 01 May2-0 12-5W
- 21 Dec1-0 6-2W
- 01 May2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1555 · Mirra Andreeva 1572
| Aryna Sabalenka | Mirra Andreeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 5–2 Mirra Andreeva (7).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Mirra Andreeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-10.1 | 11.9-8 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71.8% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 39.4% | 54.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 5 – 2 Mirra Andreeva (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 5–2 Mirra Andreeva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/25 WTA Indian Wells | 1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 19/01/25 Australian Open Women | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/01/25 WTA Brisbane | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/06/24 French Open Women | 1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 01/05/24 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/12/23 World Tennis League Women | 1-0 | 6-2 | W |
| 01/05/23 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Karolina Muchova WTA Finals · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 14/10 | Ann Li WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 04/10 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Renata Zarazua WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Jessica Pegula US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 06/09 | Taylor Townsend US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Kamilla Rakhimova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Polina Iatcenko US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Mirra Andreeva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Elina Svitolina WTA Finals · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/10 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/10 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/10 | Daria Snigur WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/10 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/10 | Yue Yuan WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-6 | W |
| 25/09 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/09 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva?
Our model gives 50% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.