Tennis · ATP Stockholm · 10/11, 19:30
Prediction: Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel
Team pages: Lorenzo Musetti · Toby Samuel
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Musetti
Toby Samuel
Estimated games
23.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Toby Samuel
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Musetti 1579 · Toby Samuel 1523
| Lorenzo Musetti | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Musetti (rating 1579 vs 1523).
- Lorenzo Musetti is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Musetti | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-11.4 | 10.9-11.1 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 5.6 |
| Double faults | 0.8 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 75.7% | 72.1% |
| Break % | 39% | 27.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.6
Over 21.5: 61% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 39% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Musetti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Luca Van Assche ATP Paris · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 04/11 | Alexander Zverev ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/11 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 29/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 23/10 | Luca Van Assche ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 21/10 | Moise Kouame ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Toby Samuel
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Leo Borg ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/11 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 07/11 | Karl Friberg ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/11 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/11 | Lukas Pokorny Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 29/10 | Clement Tabur Challenger Brest · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/10 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Hynek Barton Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Jerome Kym Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel?
Our model gives 67% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.