Tennis · M25 Santa Cruz · 10/11, 14:00
Prediction: Rafael Tosetto vs Mateus Alves
Team pages: Rafael Tosetto · Mateus Alves
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Tosetto
Mateus Alves
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Tosetto
6-4 (W-L)
Mateus Alves
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Rafael Tosetto
0–3
Mateus Alves
(3 last)
- 12 Sept0-2 5-12L
- 05 Sept0-2 4-12L
- 13 May0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Tosetto 1497 · Mateus Alves 1507
| Rafael Tosetto | Mateus Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Rafael Tosetto 0–3 Mateus Alves (3).
Statistics
| Rafael Tosetto | Mateus Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-12.6 | 9.6-10.1 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 70.4% |
| Break % | 38.7% | 35.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
H2H · Rafael Tosetto 0 – 3 Mateus Alves (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rafael Tosetto 0–3 Mateus Alves
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/26 M15 Leme | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/09/26 M15 Porto Velho | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/05/26 M15 Maringa | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Tosetto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 02/11 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/11 | Younes Lalami Laaroussi Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/10 | Tomas Martinez M15 Joao Pessoa |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 17/10 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/10 | Joao Goncalves M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 13/10 | Ignacio Monzon M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 27/09 | Jose Pereira Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 24/09 | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro M15 Curitiba |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
Mateus Alves
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Filip Misolic Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/10 | Jose Pereira Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Bernardo Munk Mesa Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/10 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/10 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jose Pereira Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Bautista De La Pena Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Jose Pereira Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 26/09 | Wilson Leite M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Tosetto vs Mateus Alves?
Our model gives 70% to Mateus Alves, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.