Tennis · Challenger Monastir · 10/11, 16:00
Prediction: Marvin Moeller vs Nikolai Barsukov
Team pages: Marvin Moeller · Nikolai Barsukov
Prediction summary
Winner
Marvin Moeller
Nikolai Barsukov
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Marvin Moeller
6-4 (W-L)
Nikolai Barsukov
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marvin Moeller
1–0
Nikolai Barsukov
(1 last)
- 20 Oct2-1 15-16W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marvin Moeller 1534 · Nikolai Barsukov 1477
| Marvin Moeller | Nikolai Barsukov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marvin Moeller (rating 1534 vs 1477).
- Head-to-head: Marvin Moeller 1–0 Nikolai Barsukov (1).
- Note: Nikolai Barsukov makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Marvin Moeller | Nikolai Barsukov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11.4 | 11.5-11.9 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 65.9% | 68.1% |
| Break % | 51.3% | 32.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
H2H · Marvin Moeller 1 – 0 Nikolai Barsukov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marvin Moeller 1–0 Nikolai Barsukov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/25 Challenger Hamburg | 2-1 | 15-16 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marvin Moeller
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Hugo Grenier Challenger Taranto · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/10 | Gianluca Cadenasso Challenger Catania · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/10 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 13/10 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/10 | Matej Dodig Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Ryan Nijboer Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/10 | Tiago Torres Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/09 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 25/09 | Dali Blanch Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 23/09 | Federico Arnaboldi Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Nikolai Barsukov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Toufik Sahtali Challenger Monastir · Hard |
2-1 | 16-7 | W |
| 08/11 | Marcus Walters Challenger Monastir · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/11 | Maxence Rivet M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 27/10 | Aleksandr Braynin M25 Malta |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 06/10 | Yaojie Zeng M25 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Taiyo Yamanaka M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Alexandr Binda M25 Yinchuan |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/09 | Seonyong Han M25 Yinchuan |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 19/09 | Alibek Kachmazov M25 Guiyang |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Nino Ehrenschneider M25 Guiyang |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marvin Moeller vs Nikolai Barsukov?
Our model gives 69% to Marvin Moeller, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.