Tennis · W15 Monastir · 11/11, 10:00
Prediction: Matilde Mariani vs Carla Giambelli
Team pages: Matilde Mariani · Carla Giambelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Matilde Mariani
Carla Giambelli
Estimated games
19.3
Recent form · 10 last
Matilde Mariani
5-5 (W-L)
Carla Giambelli
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matilde Mariani 1535 · Carla Giambelli 1469
| Matilde Mariani | Carla Giambelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matilde Mariani (rating 1535 vs 1469).
- Note: Matilde Mariani makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Matilde Mariani | Carla Giambelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 0.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-9.4 | 8-9.8 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 5.8 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 60.3% | 51.8% |
| Break % | 50.5% | 50.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matilde Mariani
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Despina Papamichail W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/10 | Maria Toma W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 14/10 | Chiara Fornasieri W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Polina Berezina W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 30/09 | Mariia Lazarenko W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Yekaterina Dmitrichenko W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Lan Mi W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/09 | Miroslava Medvedeva W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/09 | Maria Oliver Sanchez W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Mariia Masiianskaia W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Carla Giambelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Jennifer Ruggeri W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Paula Ormaechea W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/10 | Nellie Taraba Wallberg W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Agnese Gentili W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/09 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Eva Marie Voracek W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/09 | Charlotte Pikkaart W15 Viserba Di Rimini |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Carolina Gasparini W15 Fiano Romano |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Elza Tomase W15 Fiano Romano |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matilde Mariani vs Carla Giambelli?
Our model gives 62% to Matilde Mariani, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.