Tennis · WTA Finals · 10/11, 21:00
Prediction: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula
Team pages: Marta Kostyuk · Jessica Pegula
Prediction summary
Winner
Marta Kostyuk
Jessica Pegula
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Marta Kostyuk
6-4 (W-L)
Jessica Pegula
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marta Kostyuk
3–4
Jessica Pegula
(7 last)
- 26 Apr2-0 12-5W
- 10 Jan2-0 12-3W
- 01 Oct1-2 11-18L
- 24 Mar0-2 5-12L
- 03 Mar2-0 13-7W
- 20 Jan0-2 2-12L
- 17 Aug1-2 10-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marta Kostyuk 1508 · Jessica Pegula 1513
| Marta Kostyuk | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 38% | 62% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Marta Kostyuk 3–4 Jessica Pegula (7).
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Marta Kostyuk | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-10.9 | 12.2-11.5 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 4 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 69.7% |
| Break % | 53.9% | 48.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Marta Kostyuk 3 – 4 Jessica Pegula (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marta Kostyuk 3–4 Jessica Pegula
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/01/26 WTA Brisbane | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/10/25 WTA Beijing | 1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/03/25 WTA Miami | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/03/24 WTA San Diego | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/01/23 Australian Open Women | 0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 17/08/22 WTA Cincinnati | 1-2 | 10-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marta Kostyuk
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Linda Noskova WTA Finals · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Maria Sakkari WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 18/09 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Ekaterina Alexandrova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Sloane Stephens US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/08 | Storm Hunter US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Sloane Stephens WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Jessica Pegula
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Coco Gauff WTA Finals · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 14/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 11/09 | Aryna Sabalenka US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Emma Navarro US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 07/09 | Sorana Cirstea US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Leylah Annie Fernandez US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Sofia Kenin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/08 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula?
Our model gives 57% to Jessica Pegula, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.