Tennis · Challenger Matsuyama · 10/11, 03:30
Prediction: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
Team pages: Niels McDonald · Koki Matsuda
Prediction summary
Winner
Niels McDonald
Koki Matsuda
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Niels McDonald
3-7 (W-L)
Koki Matsuda
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Niels McDonald 1474 · Koki Matsuda 1498
| Niels McDonald | Koki Matsuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Niels McDonald | Koki Matsuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-11.7 | 11.1-12.2 |
| Aces | 3 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 70.4% |
| Break % | 48.9% | 28.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Niels McDonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Michael Geerts Challenger Brest · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 25/10 | Pierre Delage Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/10 | Jakub Paul Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 28/09 | Niels Visker Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Zaccharie Cado Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 10/08 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
Koki Matsuda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | S D Prajwal Dev Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/11 | Yuki Mochizuki Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 01/11 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/10 | Terence Atmane Challenger Seoul · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 26/10 | Beibit Zhukayev Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/10 | Geun Jun Kim Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/10 | Yi Zhou Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/10 | Millen Hurrion Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 06/10 | Evan Zhu Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda?
Our model gives 50% to Niels McDonald, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.