Tennis · Challenger Brisbane · 10/11, 07:30
Prediction: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt
Team pages: Hiroki Moriya · Alex Bolt
Prediction summary
Winner
Hiroki Moriya
Alex Bolt
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Hiroki Moriya
5-5 (W-L)
Alex Bolt
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hiroki Moriya
0–5
Alex Bolt
(5 last)
- 14 Feb1-2 12-15L
- 13 Nov1-2 13-16L
- 02 Mar0-2 10-13L
- 02 Feb1-2 14-15L
- 31 Oct0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hiroki Moriya 1530 · Alex Bolt 1529
| Hiroki Moriya | Alex Bolt | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Hiroki Moriya 0–5 Alex Bolt (5).
Statistics
| Hiroki Moriya | Alex Bolt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-11 | 10.1-10.8 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 65.3% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 31.3% | 27.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Hiroki Moriya 0 – 5 Alex Bolt (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hiroki Moriya 0–5 Alex Bolt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Challenger Brisbane | 1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 13/11/24 Challenger Kobe | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 02/03/24 ITF M25 Traralgon | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/02/24 Challenger Burnie | 1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 31/10/19 Challenger Playford 2 | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hiroki Moriya
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Pavle Marinkov Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/11 | Nikolas Baker Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/10 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/10 | James McCabe Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/10 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/10 | Taisei Ichikawa Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Keegan Smith Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 29/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Alex Bolt
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Lloyd Harris ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/10 | Evan Zhu Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 29/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Akira Santillan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/09 | Omar Jasika ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt?
Our model gives 61% to Alex Bolt, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.