Tennis · ATP Stockholm · 10/11, 11:00
Prediction: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Shevchenko
Team pages: Luca Van Assche · Alexander Shevchenko
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Van Assche
Alexander Shevchenko
Estimated games
23.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Van Assche
6-4 (W-L)
Alexander Shevchenko
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luca Van Assche
3–2
Alexander Shevchenko
(5 last)
- 27 Jan2-0 12-8W
- 31 Dec0-2 5-12L
- 14 Jun2-0 13-8W
- 18 Apr0-2 4-12L
- 02 May2-1 19-17W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Van Assche 1560 · Alexander Shevchenko 1516
| Luca Van Assche | Alexander Shevchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Van Assche (rating 1560 vs 1516).
- Head-to-head: Luca Van Assche 3–2 Alexander Shevchenko (5).
Statistics
| Luca Van Assche | Alexander Shevchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-13.3 | 11.2-10.2 |
| Aces | 8.8 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 77.7% | 72.6% |
| Break % | 28.7% | 47.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.6
Over 22.5: 54% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 46% · 1.83
H2H · Luca Van Assche 3 – 2 Alexander Shevchenko (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luca Van Assche 3–2 Alexander Shevchenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/01/26 Challenger Quimper | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 31/12/23 ATP Brisbane | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/06/22 Challenger Blois | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/04/22 Challenger Split | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/05/21 ITF M15 Majadahonda | 2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Van Assche
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Ben Shelton ATP Paris · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 06/11 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 05/11 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 04/11 | Learner Tien ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/11 | Mariano Navone ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/10 | Learner Tien ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/10 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 22/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 20/10 | Clement Tabur ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Alexander Shevchenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/11 | Viktor Durasovic ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/11 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 18/10 | Stefanos Sakellaridis ATP Almaty · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 17/10 | Daniil Glinka ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 16/10 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/10 | Miomir Kecmanovic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/10 | Yoshihito Nishioka ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Hayato Matsuoka Asian Games |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Shevchenko?
Our model gives 58% to Luca Van Assche, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.