Tennis · Challenger Orleans · 10/11, 11:00
Prediction: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston
Team pages: Matteo Martineau · Hugo Gaston
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Martineau
Hugo Gaston
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Martineau
8-2 (W-L)
Hugo Gaston
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matteo Martineau
1–0
Hugo Gaston
(1 last)
- 01 Sept2-1 16-18W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Martineau 1585 · Hugo Gaston 1480
| Matteo Martineau | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matteo Martineau (rating 1585 vs 1480).
- Matteo Martineau dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 56.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Matteo Martineau 1–0 Hugo Gaston (1).
Statistics
| Matteo Martineau | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-10.7 | 11.8-12.3 |
| Aces | 7.4 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 75.7% | 66.8% |
| Break % | 56.3% | 43.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
H2H · Matteo Martineau 1 – 0 Hugo Gaston (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matteo Martineau 1–0 Hugo Gaston
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/19 ITF M15 Piombino | 2-1 | 16-18 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Martineau
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/11 | Felix Gill Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/11 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 05/11 | Adrian Andreev Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 03/11 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/10 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Brest · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/10 | Thijs Boogaard M25 Sarreguemines |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 18/10 | Mika Brunold Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/10 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 16/10 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Hugo Gaston
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Vit Kopriva ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/10 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 20/10 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Roanne · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Daniel Jade Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/10 | Liam Draxl ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 25/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 24/09 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston?
Our model gives 53% to Matteo Martineau, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.