Tennis · Challenger Orleans · 10/11, 11:00
Prediction: Sebastian Baez vs Daniil Glinka
Team pages: Sebastian Baez · Daniil Glinka
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Baez
Daniil Glinka
Estimated games
23.4
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Baez
1-9 (W-L)
Daniil Glinka
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Baez 1412 · Daniil Glinka 1509
| Sebastian Baez | Daniil Glinka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Glinka (rating 1412 vs 1509).
- Daniil Glinka is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Sebastian Baez | Daniil Glinka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.9 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-13.9 | 13.2-13.3 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 62.2% | 71.8% |
| Break % | 22.3% | 38% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Baez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/11 | Tomas Machac ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/10 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Paris · Hard |
1-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 24/10 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 20/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Marcos Giron ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 01/10 | Juncheng Shang ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 23/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 31/08 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 3-18 | L |
Daniil Glinka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Brest · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 17/10 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 11/10 | Laslo Djere Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 09/10 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 08/10 | Moez Echargui Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/10 | Gauthier Onclin Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 30/09 | Henry Bernet Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Dino Prizmic Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 23/09 | Ugo Blanchet Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Baez vs Daniil Glinka?
Our model gives 53% to Daniil Glinka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.