Tennis · Challenger Matsuyama · 09/11, 02:00
Prediction: Keisuke Saitoh vs Renta Tokuda
Team pages: Keisuke Saitoh · Renta Tokuda
Prediction summary
Winner
Keisuke Saitoh
Renta Tokuda
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Keisuke Saitoh
5-5 (W-L)
Renta Tokuda
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keisuke Saitoh 1576 · Renta Tokuda 1506
| Keisuke Saitoh | Renta Tokuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keisuke Saitoh (rating 1576 vs 1506).
- Keisuke Saitoh is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Keisuke Saitoh | Renta Tokuda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-9.1 | 12-11.5 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 68.3% |
| Break % | 54.8% | 45.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keisuke Saitoh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Yusuke Takahashi Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 10/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/10 | Akira Santillan Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 07/10 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/10 | Dominik Palan Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Yusuke Takahashi Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 04/10 | Zicong Wang Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 29/09 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/09 | Jerry Roddick M25 Sapporo |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
Renta Tokuda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 27/07 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 20/07 | Millen Hurrion Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 19/07 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 12/07 | Alexander Rozin Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/06 | Naoki Nakagawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-1 | 4-6 | L |
| 18/06 | Shunsuke Nakagawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Ryota Tanuma M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Shu Matsuoka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 04/05 | Mark Lajal Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keisuke Saitoh vs Renta Tokuda?
Our model gives 56% to Keisuke Saitoh, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.