Tennis · Challenger Monastir · 10/11, 11:00
Prediction: Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Team pages: Bernardo Munk Mesa · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Prediction summary
Winner
Bernardo Munk Mesa
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Bernardo Munk Mesa
4-6 (W-L)
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernardo Munk Mesa 1435 · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1518
| Bernardo Munk Mesa | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mohamed Aziz Dougaz (rating 1435 vs 1518).
- Note: Bernardo Munk Mesa makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Bernardo Munk Mesa | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-13 | 11.9-11.9 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.2% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 43.7% | 34.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernardo Munk Mesa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Tristan McCormick Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/10 | Mateus Alves Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/10 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 04/10 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 08/09 | Mario Arce Fernandez M25 Gijon |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 04/09 | Ryan Nijboer M15 Madrid |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Juan Ignacio Gallego M15 Madrid |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Wissam Abderrahman M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/11 | Nazim Makhlouf M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 05/11 | Kasra Rahmani M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/11 | Julien Penzlin M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/10 | Nishesh Basavareddy ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/10 | Tom Gentzsch ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 13/10 | Damir Dzumhur Challenger Olbia · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 06/10 | Federico Cina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/10 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 23/09 | Reiya Komagata M25 Yinchuan |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Mohamed Aziz Dougaz?
Our model gives 71% to Mohamed Aziz Dougaz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.