Tennis · Challenger Monastir · 10/11, 11:00
Prediction: Mert Alkaya vs Eliakim Coulibaly
Team pages: Mert Alkaya · Eliakim Coulibaly
Prediction summary
Winner
Mert Alkaya
Eliakim Coulibaly
Estimated games
19.4
Recent form · 10 last
Mert Alkaya
5-5 (W-L)
Eliakim Coulibaly
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mert Alkaya
1–1
Eliakim Coulibaly
(2 last)
- 29 Oct2-1 13-9W
- 26 Apr0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mert Alkaya 1526 · Eliakim Coulibaly 1615
| Mert Alkaya | Eliakim Coulibaly | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eliakim Coulibaly (rating 1526 vs 1615).
- Mert Alkaya dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 40.4% break avg.
- Eliakim Coulibaly is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mert Alkaya | Eliakim Coulibaly | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.8-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-10.1 | 11.3-5.4 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 79.4% |
| Break % | 40.4% | 58.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.4
H2H · Mert Alkaya 1 – 1 Eliakim Coulibaly (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mert Alkaya 1–1 Eliakim Coulibaly
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/25 Challenger Monastir | 2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/04/23 ITF M25 Tbilisi | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mert Alkaya
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/10 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/10 | Rigele Te Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/10 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 11/10 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Nino Ehrenschneider M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 09/10 | Yan Cheng Chen M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Ko Suzuki M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 07/10 | Isaac Becroft M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Francisco Cerundolo Davis Cup |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Eliakim Coulibaly
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Jack Loge M25 Luanda · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/10 | Thomas Faurel M25 Luanda · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/10 | Louis Larue M25 Luanda · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/10 | Nikita Ianin M25 Luanda · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/10 | Louis Larue M25 Luanda · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-8 | L |
| 14/10 | Guelord Kayombo M25 Luanda · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 11/10 | John Echeverria M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 10/10 | Aziz Ouakaa M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 8-3 | W |
| 09/10 | Nazim Makhlouf M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/10 | Rocco Piatti M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mert Alkaya vs Eliakim Coulibaly?
Our model gives 65% to Eliakim Coulibaly, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.