Tennis · Challenger Brisbane · 09/11, 03:00
Prediction: Hiroki Moriya vs Pavle Marinkov
Team pages: Hiroki Moriya · Pavle Marinkov
Prediction summary
Winner
Hiroki Moriya
Pavle Marinkov
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Hiroki Moriya
5-5 (W-L)
Pavle Marinkov
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hiroki Moriya
1–0
Pavle Marinkov
(1 last)
- 28 Feb2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hiroki Moriya 1546 · Pavle Marinkov 1456
| Hiroki Moriya | Pavle Marinkov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hiroki Moriya (rating 1546 vs 1456).
- Hiroki Moriya is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Hiroki Moriya 1–0 Pavle Marinkov (1).
- Note: Pavle Marinkov makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Hiroki Moriya | Pavle Marinkov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 0.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-10.6 | 8.9-11.7 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 2 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.7% | 65.7% |
| Break % | 32.7% | 27.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
H2H · Hiroki Moriya 1 – 0 Pavle Marinkov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hiroki Moriya 1–0 Pavle Marinkov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/24 ITF M25 Traralgon | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hiroki Moriya
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Nikolas Baker Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/10 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/10 | James McCabe Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/10 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/10 | Taisei Ichikawa Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Keegan Smith Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 29/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Jilong Huang Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Pavle Marinkov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Derek Pham Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 28/10 | Blake Ellis M25 Tamworth |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Philip Sekulic M25 Tamworth |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Christian Langmo Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/07 | Mikael Arseneault Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Yibing Wu Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Ronit Karki Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Christian Langmo M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Duncan Chan M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Ryan Colby M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hiroki Moriya vs Pavle Marinkov?
Our model gives 65% to Hiroki Moriya, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.