Tennis · Challenger Orleans · 08/11, 16:00
Prediction: Luca Nardi vs Alexander Donski
Team pages: Luca Nardi · Alexander Donski
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Nardi
Alexander Donski
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Nardi
5-5 (W-L)
Alexander Donski
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Nardi 1509 · Alexander Donski 1462
| Luca Nardi | Alexander Donski | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Nardi (rating 1509 vs 1462).
- Alexander Donski dominates on serve: 10.6 aces and 48.1% break avg.
- Note: Alexander Donski makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Luca Nardi | Alexander Donski | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-10.4 | 11.4-12.4 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 10.6 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 78.5% |
| Break % | 54.4% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Nardi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/10 | Lorenzo Carboni Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 05/10 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Rio Noguchi Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 14/06 | Giles Hussey Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Alexander Donski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Omar Jasika Challenger Taipei · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 25/10 | Yunseong Chung Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 17/08 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 07/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/08 | Nitin Kumar Sinha Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/08 | Kenny de Schepper Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Nardi vs Alexander Donski?
Our model gives 69% to Luca Nardi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.