Tennis · W75 Brisbane · 08/11, 04:00
Prediction: Caitlin Baker vs Belle Thompson
Team pages: Caitlin Baker · Belle Thompson
Prediction summary
Winner
Caitlin Baker
Belle Thompson
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Caitlin Baker
2-8 (W-L)
Belle Thompson
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Caitlin Baker
0–3
Belle Thompson
(3 last)
- 12 May0-2 4-12L
- 08 Oct0-2 1-12L
- 05 Aug0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caitlin Baker 1458 · Belle Thompson 1527
| Caitlin Baker | Belle Thompson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 11% | 89% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Belle Thompson (rating 1458 vs 1527).
- Head-to-head: Caitlin Baker 0–3 Belle Thompson (3).
- Note: Caitlin Baker makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Caitlin Baker | Belle Thompson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.3-11.5 | 9.9-10.1 |
| Aces | 0 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 54.4% | 57.8% |
| Break % | 40.8% | 48% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
H2H · Caitlin Baker 0 – 3 Belle Thompson (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caitlin Baker 0–3 Belle Thompson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 UTR Pro Melbourne Women | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/10/24 ITF W35 Cairns | 0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 05/08/22 UTR Pro Tennis Series Caloundra Women | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caitlin Baker
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Yuka Hosoki W35 Wagga Wagga |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Sofia Savic UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Bridget Mihulka UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Laquisa Khan UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Chelsea Stergiopoulos UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/08 | Ashley Katz UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Ami Dalla Pozza W15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/07 | Destanee Aiava W15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Ava-Monet Sycamore W15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Madison Schwarz W15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 7-8 | W |
Belle Thompson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Hikaru Sato W35 Sydney |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 30/10 | Alana Subasic W35 Sydney |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/10 | Dayeon Back W35 Sydney |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 28/10 | Sera Nishimoto W35 Sydney |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 21/10 | I Wen Wan W35 Sydney |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Yuno Kitahara W35 Wagga Wagga |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Ashleigh Simes W35 Wagga Wagga |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/09 | I Wen Wan UTR Pro Sydney Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Lily Fannin UTR Pro Sydney Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/09 | Laquisa Khan UTR Pro Sydney Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caitlin Baker vs Belle Thompson?
Our model gives 76% to Belle Thompson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.