Tennis · Challenger Matsuyama · 10/11, 02:00
Prediction: Jay Friend vs Yusuke Kusuhara
Team pages: Jay Friend · Yusuke Kusuhara
Prediction summary
Winner
Jay Friend
Yusuke Kusuhara
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Jay Friend
5-5 (W-L)
Yusuke Kusuhara
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jay Friend 1533 · Yusuke Kusuhara 1481
| Jay Friend | Yusuke Kusuhara | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jay Friend (rating 1533 vs 1481).
- Jay Friend dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 40.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Jay Friend | Yusuke Kusuhara | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-12 | 10.5-10.6 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 69% |
| Break % | 40.6% | 45.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Sho Shimabukuro Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/10 | Coleman Wong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/10 | James McCabe Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 20/10 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 15/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 10/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/10 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Yusuke Kusuhara
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/10 | Takuya Kumasaka M15 Tanagura |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 22/10 | Makoto Ochi M15 Tanagura |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/10 | Kodai Abe M15 Tanagura |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 02/09 | Sora Fukuda M25 Urayasu |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 09/07 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 08/07 | Ryotaro Taguchi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Riku Takahata M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Jake Delaney M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Shu Matsuoka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jay Friend vs Yusuke Kusuhara?
Our model gives 73% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.