Tennis · Challenger Matsuyama · 10/11, 02:00
Prediction: Rio Noguchi vs Daniel Michalski
Team pages: Rio Noguchi · Daniel Michalski
Prediction summary
Winner
Rio Noguchi
Daniel Michalski
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rio Noguchi
4-6 (W-L)
Daniel Michalski
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rio Noguchi 1466 · Daniel Michalski 1569
| Rio Noguchi | Daniel Michalski | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Michalski (rating 1466 vs 1569).
- Daniel Michalski is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rio Noguchi | Daniel Michalski | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-11.1 | 12.3-7.4 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 36.8% | 49.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rio Noguchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 05/10 | Alexandre Muller ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 23/09 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Masamichi Imamura ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/09 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Rigele Te Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Daniel Michalski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | August Holmgren Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Alexander Weis M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Ivan Ivanov M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 09/10 | Giovanni Oradini M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/10 | Alessandro Bellifemine M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 07/10 | Lorenzo Bocchi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/09 | Laurent Lokoli M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/09 | Eric Vanshelboim M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Lorenzo Carboni M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/09 | Giacomo Crisostomo M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rio Noguchi vs Daniel Michalski?
Our model gives 58% to Daniel Michalski, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.