Tennis · Challenger Brisbane · 10/11, 01:00
Prediction: Bernard Tomic vs Blake Ellis
Team pages: Bernard Tomic · Blake Ellis
Prediction summary
Winner
Bernard Tomic
Blake Ellis
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Bernard Tomic
5-5 (W-L)
Blake Ellis
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Bernard Tomic
0–1
Blake Ellis
(1 last)
- 08 Jan1-2 16-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernard Tomic 1541 · Blake Ellis 1623
| Bernard Tomic | Blake Ellis | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blake Ellis (rating 1541 vs 1623).
- Blake Ellis dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 45.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Bernard Tomic 0–1 Blake Ellis (1).
Statistics
| Bernard Tomic | Blake Ellis | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-10.7 | 14.1-11.2 |
| Aces | 8.7 | 8.2 |
| Double faults | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 77.2% | 75.9% |
| Break % | 35% | 45.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
H2H · Bernard Tomic 0 – 1 Blake Ellis (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bernard Tomic 0–1 Blake Ellis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/26 Challenger Noumea | 1-2 | 16-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Timofey Skatov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/10 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 29/09 | Fajing Sun Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/09 | Fajing Sun ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Rigele Te ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 19/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/09 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/09 | Yuta Kikuchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Blake Ellis
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Philip Sekulic M25 Tamworth |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 30/10 | Anton Shepp M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 29/10 | Harrison Satara M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/10 | Pavle Marinkov M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/10 | Isaac Becroft M25 Tamworth |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 24/10 | Stefan Vujic M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 24/10 | Herman Hoeyeraal M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Zane Stevens M25 Tamworth |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 22/10 | Benjamin O'Connell M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/09 | Arjun Mehrotra M25 Darwin |
1-1 | 12-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernard Tomic vs Blake Ellis?
Our model gives 52% to Bernard Tomic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.