Tennis · Challenger Brisbane · 10/11, 01:00
Prediction: James McCabe vs Jan Kumstat
Team pages: James McCabe · Jan Kumstat
Prediction summary
Winner
James McCabe
Jan Kumstat
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
James McCabe
3-7 (W-L)
Jan Kumstat
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · James McCabe 1399 · Jan Kumstat 1540
| James McCabe | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jan Kumstat (rating 1399 vs 1540).
- Jan Kumstat is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| James McCabe | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 11% (9) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.9 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-14.3 | 11.9-12.8 |
| Aces | 7 | 9.9 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.4% | 74.6% |
| Break % | 25.7% | 28.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
James McCabe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/10 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 21/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 19/10 | Elias Ymer Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Federico Cina Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Lukas Neumayer US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Noah Zamora M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 25/07 | Alex Bolt ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Jan Kumstat
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/11 | Harold Mayot Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 04/11 | Billy Harris Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/11 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 27/10 | Sho Shimabukuro Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Michael Mmoh ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 15/10 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 31/08 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in James McCabe vs Jan Kumstat?
Our model gives 72% to Jan Kumstat, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.