Tennis · ATP Stockholm · 10/11, 12:00
Prediction: Elias Ymer vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Team pages: Elias Ymer · Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Prediction summary
Winner
Elias Ymer
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Elias Ymer
5-5 (W-L)
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elias Ymer
0–1
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
(1 last)
- 14 Jul1-2 11-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elias Ymer 1414 · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1521
| Elias Ymer | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 24% | 76% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Manuel Cerundolo (rating 1414 vs 1521).
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Elias Ymer 0–1 Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1).
Statistics
| Elias Ymer | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.7 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-14.6 | 11.8-12.3 |
| Aces | 8.2 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 66.9% | 72.6% |
| Break % | 26.9% | 29% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.9
Over 21.5: 69% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 31% · 1.83
H2H · Elias Ymer 0 – 1 Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elias Ymer 0–1 Juan Manuel Cerundolo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/23 Challenger Salzburg | 1-2 | 11-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elias Ymer
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Yi Zhou Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 19/10 | James McCabe Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 13/10 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 02/10 | Federico Cina Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 18/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 08/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Casper Ruud ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/11 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 31/10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/10 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 25/10 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/10 | Zachary Svajda ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elias Ymer vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo?
Our model gives 71% to Juan Manuel Cerundolo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.