Tennis · ATP Stockholm · 10/11, 12:00
Prediction: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Ugo Humbert
Team pages: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo · Ugo Humbert
Prediction summary
Winner
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Ugo Humbert
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
5-5 (W-L)
Ugo Humbert
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 1493 · Ugo Humbert 1424
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (rating 1493 vs 1424).
- Adolfo Daniel Vallejo is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Ugo Humbert makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 0.9-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-12 | 12.3-14.4 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 75.5% |
| Break % | 49.6% | 28.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.9
Over 22.5: 57% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 43% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Learner Tien ATP Paris · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 01/11 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Paris · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 31/10 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 24/10 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 10/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Valentin Royer ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
Ugo Humbert
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 02/11 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 28/10 | Novak Djokovic ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/10 | Corentin Moutet ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 09/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 03/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Ugo Humbert?
Our model gives 54% to Ugo Humbert, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.