Tennis · Challenger Matsuyama · 08/11, 02:00
Prediction: Koki Matsuda vs Yuki Mochizuki
Team pages: Koki Matsuda · Yuki Mochizuki
Prediction summary
Winner
Koki Matsuda
Yuki Mochizuki
Estimated games
20.6
Recent form · 10 last
Koki Matsuda
4-6 (W-L)
Yuki Mochizuki
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Koki Matsuda 1450 · Yuki Mochizuki 1491
| Koki Matsuda | Yuki Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yuki Mochizuki (rating 1450 vs 1491).
Statistics
| Koki Matsuda | Yuki Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.5 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.9-12.5 | 10.2-9.5 |
| Aces | 5.7 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.2% | 71.8% |
| Break % | 19.7% | 27.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Koki Matsuda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/10 | Terence Atmane Challenger Seoul · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 26/10 | Beibit Zhukayev Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/10 | Geun Jun Kim Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/10 | Yi Zhou Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/10 | Millen Hurrion Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 06/10 | Evan Zhu Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Arthur Weber Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Yuki Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Chase Ferguson M25 Sapporo |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Makoto Ochi M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Kasidit Samrej M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Fanming Meng M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Tianjin |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 08/08 | Donghyun Hwang M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Tsung-Hao Huang M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/08 | Ruochen Gao M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Jaesung Choe M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Koki Matsuda vs Yuki Mochizuki?
Our model gives 59% to Koki Matsuda, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.