Tennis · Challenger Brisbane · 08/11, 01:00
Prediction: Derek Pham vs Pavle Marinkov
Team pages: Derek Pham · Pavle Marinkov
Prediction summary
Winner
Derek Pham
Pavle Marinkov
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Derek Pham
6-4 (W-L)
Pavle Marinkov
1-9 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Derek Pham 1525 · Pavle Marinkov 1425
| Derek Pham | Pavle Marinkov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Derek Pham (rating 1525 vs 1425).
- Derek Pham dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 41.7% break avg.
- Derek Pham is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Pavle Marinkov makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Derek Pham | Pavle Marinkov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 25% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 0.4-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-10.4 | 7.8-11.7 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 75.5% | 64.8% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 22.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derek Pham
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Jeremy Beale M25 Tamworth |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/10 | Stefan Vujic M25 Tamworth |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/10 | Ethan Cook M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Zane Stevens M25 Darwin |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 07/10 | Scott Jones M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/10 | Hayden Jones M25 Darwin |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Jake Delaney M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/10 | Jeremy Beale M25 Darwin |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Joshua Charlton M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/09 | Ashwin Ryan Sharma M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Pavle Marinkov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Blake Ellis M25 Tamworth |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Philip Sekulic M25 Tamworth |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Christian Langmo Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/07 | Mikael Arseneault Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Yibing Wu Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Ronit Karki Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Christian Langmo M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Duncan Chan M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Ryan Colby M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 31/05 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derek Pham vs Pavle Marinkov?
Our model gives 57% to Derek Pham, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.