Prediction: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Team pages: Matteo Berrettini · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Berrettini
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Berrettini
4-6 (W-L)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matteo Berrettini
1–3
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
(4 last)
- 10 Jul1-3 15-21L
- 19 Feb1-2 10-14L
- 21 Jan3-2 26-26W
- 29 Oct1-2 14-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Berrettini 1507 · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1620
| Matteo Berrettini | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (rating 1507 vs 1620).
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Matteo Berrettini 1–3 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (4).
Statistics
| Matteo Berrettini | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.8-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-13.8 | 13-9.2 |
| Aces | 12.9 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 78.1% | 76.1% |
| Break % | 22.5% | 52.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +3.6
Over 20.5: 73% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 27% · 1.90
H2H · Matteo Berrettini 1 – 3 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matteo Berrettini 1–3 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/23 Wimbledon | 1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 19/02/22 ATP Rio De Janeiro | 1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 21/01/22 Australian Open | 3-2 | 26-26 | W |
| 29/10/21 ATP Vienna | 1-2 | 14-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Berrettini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Ugo Humbert ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 03/11 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 30/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 03/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 03/09 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-22 | L |
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Alex Michelsen ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/11 | Alex De Minaur ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
Our model gives 76% to Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.