Tennis · Challenger Bratislava · 05/11, 15:00
Prediction: Jurij Rodionov vs Toby Samuel
Team pages: Jurij Rodionov · Toby Samuel
Prediction summary
Winner
Jurij Rodionov
Toby Samuel
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Jurij Rodionov
7-3 (W-L)
Toby Samuel
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jurij Rodionov 1521 · Toby Samuel 1495
| Jurij Rodionov | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jurij Rodionov dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 40.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Jurij Rodionov | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-12.4 | 11.8-11.6 |
| Aces | 7.9 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 70.7% |
| Break % | 40.6% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jurij Rodionov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 12-19 | L |
| 19/09 | Zizou Bergs Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/09 | Gauthier Onclin Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/09 | Daniel Masur Challenger Cassis · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-21 | L |
| 31/08 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Jacob Fearnley US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Toby Samuel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Lukas Pokorny Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 29/10 | Clement Tabur Challenger Brest · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/10 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Hynek Barton Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Jerome Kym Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 29/09 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Andy Andrade Davis Cup |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 30/08 | Tomas Machac US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jurij Rodionov vs Toby Samuel?
Our model gives 53% to Toby Samuel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.