Tennis · WTA Finals · 08/11, 21:00
Prediction: Elena Rybakina vs Linda Noskova
Team pages: Elena Rybakina · Linda Noskova
Prediction summary
Winner
Elena Rybakina
Linda Noskova
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Elena Rybakina
8-2 (W-L)
Linda Noskova
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elena Rybakina
3–0
Linda Noskova
(3 last)
- 09 Oct2-0 12-7W
- 06 Jan2-0 12-5W
- 01 Jun2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elena Rybakina 1625 · Linda Noskova 1575
| Elena Rybakina | Linda Noskova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elena Rybakina (rating 1625 vs 1575).
- Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 47.6% break avg.
- Linda Noskova dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 47.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Elena Rybakina 3–0 Linda Noskova (3).
- Note: Linda Noskova makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Elena Rybakina | Linda Noskova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.6 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-9.2 | 13.3-9.5 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 7.7 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 77.8% | 73.7% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 47.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
H2H · Elena Rybakina 3 – 0 Linda Noskova (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elena Rybakina 3–0 Linda Noskova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/25 WTA Wuhan | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/01/24 WTA Brisbane | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/06/23 French Open Women | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/10 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/10 | Diana Shnaider WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 03/10 | Alina Charaeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 12/09 | Aryna Sabalenka US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 11/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 09/09 | Qinwen Zheng US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 07/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Yulia Starodubtsewa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Linda Noskova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/10 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/09 | Elina Svitolina Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/09 | Cristina Bucsa Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Katie Boulter Billie Jean King Cup · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Aryna Sabalenka US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Marta Kostyuk US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 04/09 | Ann Li US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Lanlana Tararudee US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elena Rybakina vs Linda Noskova?
Our model gives 63% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.