Tennis · W35 Liberec · 03/11, 10:00
Prediction: Mara Guth vs Federica Urgesi
Team pages: Mara Guth · Federica Urgesi
Prediction summary
Winner
Mara Guth
Federica Urgesi
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Mara Guth
4-6 (W-L)
Federica Urgesi
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mara Guth 1542 · Federica Urgesi 1592
| Mara Guth | Federica Urgesi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Federica Urgesi (rating 1542 vs 1592).
- Note: Mara Guth makes many double faults (6.5/match).
- Note: Federica Urgesi makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Mara Guth | Federica Urgesi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (3) | 100% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.6-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-9.7 | 11.6-7.4 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 6.5 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 65.8% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 50.3% | 58% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mara Guth
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Chelsea Fontenel W35 Malta |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 25/09 | Yuliya Hatouka W35 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Anna Sedysheva W35 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 23/09 | Liel Marlies Rothensteiner W35 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 16/09 | Margarita Betova W35 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/08 | Valentina Ryser W35 Verbier |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Tiphanie Lemaitre W35 Verbier |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/08 | Margaux Komano W35 Verbier |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 21/08 | Anastasija Cvetkovic W35 Verbier |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 20/08 | Karolina Kozakova W35 Verbier |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Federica Urgesi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Valentini Grammatikopoulou W35 Malta |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/10 | Angelica Raggi W35 Malta |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/10 | Isis Louise Van den Broek W35 Malta |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 28/10 | Ann Akasha Ceuca W35 Malta |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/10 | Aran Teixido Garcia W35 Loule · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/10 | Weronika Falkowska W35 Loule · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 23/10 | Carmen Lopez Martinez W35 Loule · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/10 | Joy De Zeeuw W35 Loule · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/10 | Min Liu W35 Loule · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/10 | Iva Ivanova W50 Stara Zagora |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mara Guth vs Federica Urgesi?
Our model gives 68% to Federica Urgesi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.