Tennis · Challenger Bratislava · 02/11, 10:00
Prediction: Max Houkes vs Michael Vrbensky
Team pages: Max Houkes · Michael Vrbensky
Prediction summary
Winner
Max Houkes
Michael Vrbensky
Estimated games
24
Recent form · 10 last
Max Houkes
7-3 (W-L)
Michael Vrbensky
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Max Houkes 1583 · Michael Vrbensky 1466
| Max Houkes | Michael Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Max Houkes (rating 1583 vs 1466).
- Max Houkes is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Michael Vrbensky makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Max Houkes | Michael Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (2) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.9 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-10.8 | 12.7-12.6 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 58% | 51.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Max Houkes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Dominik Macej Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 22/10 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Florence · Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 19/10 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Florence · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 11/10 | Dev Javia M25 Kigali |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 10/10 | Calvin Hemery M25 Kigali |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 09/10 | Alec Beckley M25 Kigali |
2-0 | 9-3 | W |
| 08/10 | Manuel Plunger M25 Kigali |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/10 | Rodrigo Alujas M25 Kigali |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/10 | Benjamin Lock M25 Kigali |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 02/10 | Alec Beckley M25 Kigali |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Michael Vrbensky
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Marek Gengel Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 14/10 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 13/10 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/10 | Patrick Schoen Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/09 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Prague · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 27/07 | Maxime Janvier Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 20/07 | Patrik Niklas-Salminen Challenger Tampere · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 28/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Max Houkes vs Michael Vrbensky?
Our model gives 68% to Max Houkes, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.